Disclaimer: Some views expressed by me in this thread may need to be taken with a pinch of salt. I'm British & do not have a vote, but still follow the theatre of the US primary season because it is quite unlike anything in British politics, & so to an outsider it come sometimes seem a little surreal. So I may sound sarcastic about certain candidates. Don't take it to heart, I just would find it depressing as an indictment on humanity to take certain sections of the Republican Party seriously.
Obama is certain to gain the Democratic Party nomination, there is no serious candidate opposing his re-election (sadly, Vermin Supreme has been overlooked. Though I guess "being funny" isn't the primary consideration for a presidential candidate), so for now the focus is mainly on the GOP's race. The Primarys have been going for nearly 2 months now and we've lost 3 candidates from the field. Rick Perry, the Texas governor who claimed to be cutting 3 departments completely and then failed to name more than 2 of them (he also looks to me like Salvatore Romano from Mad Men, the art director at Stirling Cooper, albeit an aged version of him. Is it just a funny coincedence that the Sal character is a closeted homosexual?), a man who despite an abscence of other socially conservative evangelical protestants managed to completely deflate that core, passionate section of the Republican Party any time he opened his mouth during debates. Then there was Jon Huntsman, inarguably the most moderate of the candidates, & the only one who would fit in to British politics, dropping out. And Tea Party favourite Michelle Bachman, born in Iowa but completely unable to get voters on side. And I think that is a great thing for everybody in the world except for stand-up comedians & satirists. She's like the dumb Sarah Palin somehow.
So we're left with 4 candidates, Mitt Romney, the one that nobody really likes but everybody accepts is the only one who stands even a vague chance of actually beating Obama, if only because he has absolutely no problems with lying compulsively. No position he holds is more important to him than power, that much is clear. So he's the favourite, a thoroughly insincere & uninspiring choice. Then the opposition to Romney just swings wildly from one man to the other, between Newt (never has a politician had such an appropriate name as this reprehensible amphibian) Gingrich, a man who claims that Palestinians are an "invented people", who wants to completely cut the EPA & who claims to be an outsider despite having had a long career in Washington DC politics including a spell as Speaker of the House. And Rick Santorum, well the nicest thing I can say about him is that at least he's absolutely consistent on his politics. He hates gays & thinks that consensual sex between 2 adults of the same gender is on the same level as fucking a child or an animal. He also wants to basically nuke Iran, or at the very least start a new Cold War with them. Finally you have Ron Paul who is a libertarian, thinks business should basically be left to do what it wants, but that states should be allowed to ban abortion.
So far Santorum surprised most observers when he won in Iowa thanks to a strong grassroots campaign that essentially made him a major player despite only beating Mittens by about 40 votes. Next up was New Hampshire where Romney had a fairly easy win, South Carolina saw the Newt victorious. Florida & Nevada both went the way of Mitt, as did Maine, while Santorum got a clean sweep on the 7th February in Colorado, Minnesota & Missouri (in Missouri Santorum won every single county & actually had more than 50% of the vote, which is pretty impressive). Next up are Alaska & Michigan on the 28th, then Washington on March 3rd before Super Tuesday on the 6th. The actual candidate won't be known until the Republican Convention at the end of August. So that's 6 more months of these guys beating the shit out of each other in a brutal campaign with some hilarious negative attack ads already deployed. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money down on Obama to win it in November.